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STANLEY
FOUNDATION:
MULTILATERALISM AS A DUAL-USE TECHNIQUE - ENCOURAGING NUCLEAR ENERGY AND
AVOIDING PROLIFERATION: BY JOHN THOMSON AND GEOFFREY FORDEN: 14/03/2008
(MaximsNews Network)
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UNITED
NATIONS - / MaximsNews Network / 14
March 2008 -- Sir John Thomson is a
research affiliate at the Massachusetts Institute
of Technology (MIT). Among many posts in the British
Diplomatic Service, he was Permanent Representative at
the UN in New York, High Commissioner in India, Under-Secretary for Defense
and Disarmament, and Head of Policy Planning. He
was also the founding chairman of what became the
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Geoffrey Forden, a
physicist and researcher at MIT, was Chief of
Multidiscipline Analysis at UNMOVIC, the UN weapons
inspection agency for Iraq and, before coming to MIT,
Principal Analyst for Strategic Weapons and Arms Control
at the US Congressional Budget Office.
Recommendations
•
Multilateralism should be welcomed in principle both as a means to promote
nuclear energy and for its nonproliferation values.
• In
practice, it should be pursued ad hoc making use of existing facilities, where
they exist, as a nucleus; regional cooperation, where politically feasible,
makes particular sense.
• As a
contribution to meeting their obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT), the nuclear states should make special efforts, including
financial ones, to assist in the establishment of the first few multilateral
organizations.
•
Multilateral facilities should normally be sited in accordance with Article IV
of the NPT in “the developing areas of the world.”
•
Since a multilateral operation is by its nature big, complex, and expensive, it
should be undertaken only if sufficient political will has been committed and
confirmed by a treaty covering the main points.
• No
one participant should be able to override the others.
• All
participants should be members of the NPT or should at a minimum have accepted
the main NPT obligations.
• The
operations should be run on commercial lines.
• The
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should be consulted from the outset.
•
Technical measures to prevent expropriation by the host country should be
investigated and applied as appropriate.
For
governmental decision makers in any country, national problems involving high
capital costs are potential candidates for multilateral organization and
funding. This is especially true if cost-effectiveness, as for example with
electricity, is important to electorates. Spreading the costs, employing
top-quality technology, assuring security of supply, and proving their prowess
in prestigious projects appeals to all governments. Multilateralism may be the
only way to achieve these objectives for countries whose needs or resources are
below the level at which a self-sufficient national program is cost-effective or
even possible. For all countries, it offers a gateway to security of fuel supply
without political strings. As one example, from the dawn of the nuclear age,
nuclear energy has been well-suited for multilateralism, both economically and
politically. In the political field, this affinity can be seen in the Baruch
Plan, Atoms for Peace, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Nuclear
Suppliers Group. In the industrial field, it is seen in Urenco (a consortium of
the British, German, and Dutch governments) and the French-dominated European
Gaseous Diffusion Uranium Enrichment Consortium (Eurodif). Urenco and Eurodif
show that multilateralism can be attractive even to advanced wealthy countries.
For smaller, less advanced, or poorer countries the case for multilateralism is
still more compelling. In addition, by obviating the need for nationally
owned-and-operated facilities, multilateralism makes an important contribution
to nonproliferation. The nub of the case is cost-efficiency, but until the
recent surge in expectations of the use of nuclear power, much of the argument
has been cast in political and nonproliferation terms. The case for
multilateralism rested on twin pillars: assuring security of supply despite
hostile political interventions and reducing if not eliminating the need for
enrichment and reprocessing plants in countries that do not already possess
them. Recognizing these issues and their tensions, in June 2004 IAEA Director
General Mohamed ElBaradei tasked an expert group, chaired by Dr. Bruno Pellaud,
to deal with the concern “that wide dissemination of the most proliferation
sensitive parts of the nuclear fuel cycle could be the ‘Achilles’ heel’ of
the nuclear non-proliferation regime.” Subsequently, this “Pellaud group”
issued a February 2005 report focused on assurances of supply and services not
involving ownership of facilities. (This is presumably why the report refers
consistently to Multilateral Nuclear Arrangements [MNA] rather than to
International ones.) It also covers, much less comprehensively, two other types
of multinational or multilateral arrangements: the conversion of existing
national facilities to multinational control and the construction of new
facilities, multinational from the first. The market mechanisms that the Pellaud
report commends and proposes to strengthen have worked well. If everyone is
content with this system, there is no reason to change it. However, some
countries worry that it is or may become unfair and unreliable. If the
manufacturing and sale of nuclear materials and services is profitable, why
should the business be reserved to a few countries? If it is not, what explains
their keenness to maintain their cartel-like monopoly? Underlying the rationale
for these and similar questions is the fact that the five permanent members of
the UN Security Council are also the only five countries officially classified
as nuclear weapon states (NWSs) and that among them they control the bulk of the
legitimate market in nuclear sales. The other countries with significant share—
Germany, Canada, and Japan—are closely associated with the three Western
permanent members. The “big boys” seem to have the nuclear power market sewn
up. The present level of resentment against the United States is unprecedented.
Much of this is due to the adventure in Iraq, and American pro- tection of
nuclear-armed Israel does not help. Some of it is closely connected with the
issue of security of supply. The United States has shown itself ready—often
eager—to impose sanctions on regimes it does not like. However justified these
sanctions may be to an objective observer, on nonproliferation grounds they
still constitute a threat to security of supply, and all the more so in light of
the Bush doctrine of anticipatory preemption. If the United States looks
unreliable, Russia seems even more so. It has already cut off oil and gas
supplies to some of its neighbors, thereby closing the supply lines to more
distant customers in Europe. Russian rhetoric leaves no doubt that the supply of
energy will be used as a political weapon to achieve national ends. Political
resentments and uncertainties are largely to blame for what appears to be a
growing unwillingness to depend exclusively on the existing market for nuclear
supplies and services. If the Great Powers would amend their behavior in ways
acceptable to potential customers (an issue to which we return below),
dependence on existing market mechanisms would become more viable. But this does
not necessarily mean that the old monopolies can be safely maintained. So much
damage has already been done that it will be hard to restore confidence.
Moreover, if there is a renaissance in nuclear energy, confidence will be
required on a larger scale and by more people than ever before. To insist that
the present market arrangement is the only answer looks politically unacceptable
and economically risky. We do not know whether the world is on the cusp of a
nuclear renaissance or, if so, how far and fast that might proceed. Yet on the
basis of current trends, it seems reasonable to suppose that several countries
will want to include some “exposure” (as the stock brokering fraternity
says) to nuclear in their energy portfolios. They will not want to be left
behind if it turns out that nuclear energy is cost-effective, reliable, and safe—all
of which are possible judgments—and their scientists and engineers may well
feel challenged to compete globally. On balance, environmental considerations
also push in this direction. However, the long lead-times for nuclear
construction and the high capital costs mitigate against a sudden dramatic
surge. Besides, a significant proportion of existing facilities will reach the
end of their projected life within the next two decades. For our current
purposes, we therefore suppose a considerable increase in the number of new
countries that will be weighing the pros and cons of nuclear power, and we
assume that all countries already possessing nuclear reactors will consider
whether or not to expand. Probably this will lead in the next two decades to an
increase in the number of countries using nuclear power, but not to an enormous
increase in the number of reactors. If these suppositions prove to be
approximately correct, it seems likely that there will be a demand for all three
types of MNA considered in the Pellaud Report. That report, as we have said, has
covered in considerable detail possible improvements in market mechanisms, and
therefore we do not dwell on that further. Instead, our object is to work out in
comparable detail what shared ownership might look like. Obviously, every case
will have its own special circumstances. Some cases may be regional, cultural,
or political; others will be commercial and financial; still others will have to
do with which part or parts of the fuel cycle are concerned especially (but not
exclusively) with enrichment, reprocessing, or long-term storage and whether any
of the prospective partners already possess such facilities. With that said, and
allowing for the need to negotiate each MNA separately, we believe that the
generalized model we sketch below will give useful guidance irrespective of
which part of the fuel cycle is at issue; this will do as well for the
multilateralization of existing facilities (Type 2 in the Pellaud Report) as for
building new multilateral facilities from scratch (Type 3).
Political
Will
We have
already shown that multilateral projects in principle have important advantages,
especially for countries with medium or small nuclear power projects and for
countries that lack abundant sources of capital or technology. Against that must
be weighed the difficulties inherent in any international project: How much
control does each participant have? Who has the final say? Are their
professional standards compatible? How are disputes to be resolved? These are
all problems that have been and can be satisfactorily managed, but an
international partnership on such an ambitious project is like marriage: it is
not to be entered into lightly or unadvisedly. Unless there is a political will
strong enough to overcome problems, it is probably better not to begin.
Exclusive
Commitment
Political
will is on trial from the beginning since it will be essential (with some
exceptions) for participants to promise not to set up new national plants in
parallel with the MNA plants. For example, if the MNA is to be a shared
enrichment facility, the participants should undertake not to establish
enrichment facilities on their soil or under their national control. This
is partly to prevent the theft of technology, partly to avoid conflict of
interest, and partly for nonproliferation reasons. It applies particularly to
the host country but as far as practicable should apply to all participants. It
would not, however, be practicable to apply it retrospectively to participants
who already own national enrichment facilities— unless they were contributing
these to the MNA—nor would it bar a country from investing in more than one
MNA.
Form of
Agreement
Political
will is also a factor in the question of what sort of agreement to negotiate. A
treaty is best because, if achievable, it does most to secure political
commitment and it is a natural type of agreement between governments. The form
of a treaty may not be indispensable, but comprehensiveness and clarity are. It
will be simplest if the partners are all governments, but we do not want to rule
out the possibility of participation, whether from the outset or later, by one
or more commercial companies. However, we advise against allowing commercial
participation unless the responsible government or governments, both legally and
as a political matter for the company concerned, are as fully and legally
committed as the directly participating governments. The treaty must provide
machinery for the settlement of disputes.
Decision
Making
In the
same line of thought, the treaty (or whatever other form of agreement is
adopted) must exclude the possibility that any one participant could exercise a
degree of control that could override the wishes of the others. This raises the
delicate issue of the position of the host government. Inevitably this
government will have advantages and burdens that are somewhat different from
those of the other participants. For example, although the host government will
operate like the others on a commercial basis, it will probably on that basis
have some advantage in terms of costs and probably also in terms of employment
and the import of capital. Against this, it will have to agree that the
installations of the partnership have the extraterritorial benefits of an
embassy and that the foreigners employed by the partnership have rights modeled
on customarY diplomatic rights. It will be prudent to recognize the special
position of the host government by providing in the treaty that it has the right
to require the partnership to Leave its territory provided (1) that an
appropriate amount of time is allowed, say three years; (2) that the host
government pays the costs thus incurred; (3) that an explanation is formally
made public. Such action by the host government will not automatically cause the
partnership to terminate. On the contrary, it should give the other participants
the right to buy out the host country and continue without it. Similarly, it
should be stipulated that no participant may sell or assign its participation
without the consent of all the others. New participants may be inducted by
unanimous invitation.
Membership
and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Given
what is said above about government responsibility, it will be logical and
simplest to provide that all of the participating governments must be
signatories of the NPT in good standing. However, we can imagine circumstances
in which both non-NPT and NPT signatories see advantage in a deal allowing the
former to become participants. The quid pro quo would be a formal agreement
whereby the nonmembers, while not signing the NPT itself, committed themselves
to observing the provisions of its first six articles.
The
Organizational Structure of an MNA
It would
be a mistake to insist that all MNA have identical structures. After all,
experience may suggest improvements. Yet a worked-out model structure will help
to reveal the strengths and problems of the MNA concept. We suggest the
following. Allowing for the foregoing points (e.g., no participant Can dominate
the others), a commercial model seems best. The participants would be
shareholders in a formal organization set up by treaty. Both the contributions
of capital and the distribution of profits would be in proportion to their
shares. Each participant with at least X% (perhaps 5%) of the shares would be
entitled to appoint at least one director of the organization. The directors on
behalf of their governments would be responsible for establishing and overseeing
policy, for financial control, for discussions with governments, and also for
hiring and overseeing a management company that would be responsible for the
day-today operations of the business. This company may well need to be formed ad
hoc for this purpose since it will need to have an international character and a
high level of professional expertise. Theoretically, the directors could run the
business themselves, but since many people of different nationalities and
diverse talents will have to be hired, it is probably better that experienced
professional management run the operations while freeing the board of directors
from the operational details in order to concentrate on large policy
issues and government relations.
The IAEA
The
board will need a close relationship with the IAEA, yet the two bodies must
remain separate and at arm’s length. The IAEA should become (with the consent
of the board of governors) the “regulators” for MNA. It is the agency
obviously best fitted to monitor operations to ensure that there is no diversion
of materials from specified procedures and purposes. (It would make no sense to
set up a new agency to do what the IAEA already does well.) Close relations are
desirable to ensure that the facilities are designed (for example, in their
piping and valves) to facilitate monitoring. At the same time, there will need
to be a firm and formal agreement between the MNA and the IAEA to ensure that
the latter will be in a position to provide material and services (for example,
fuel or storage) to countries in good standing with the NPT who are prevented
for political reasons from obtaining materials or services in the normal way.
Commercial
Considerations Crucial
The MNA
should be run on commercial lines with politics, so far as possible, kept at
bay. Thus, the compensation for the management company would be comparable to
that of peer enterprises, and the pricing of the product and services would be
competitive. MNA would no doubt benefit from drawing the large sums necessary as
starting capital from governments or government- backed funds, but they would
not be directly subsidized. Management decisions, including investment in
research and development, would be grounded in commercial calculations. If, over
the long run, an MNA fails to make a profit, it may have to be wound-up.
Provisions for winding-up must be included in the founding treaty.
Buying
or Leasing Equipment
If the
MNA is Type 2 (i.e., it incorporates existing facilities), the arguments for
leasing are strong. If the enterprise was wound-up, the equipment would then
return automatically to its owners. The same would hold for equipment brought in
to replace the original incorporated equipment. The move from one to the other
would be made on commercial grounds, and there would be no problem of factoring
in sunk costs. Leasing would probably also be preferable for political reasons.
In the case of a Type 3 MNA (one which started from scratch without existing
facilities), the board would have choices between whether to own outright or to
lease goods and services. Again, commercial considerations would normally
outweigh political ones. The land on which the facilities stand should probably
be owned by the MNA with a provision that it could not be sold or leased except
to the host government.
Personnel
We have
determined the international composition of the board of directors above. The
management company would also be internationally manned. Expertise would be the
first requirement so the numbers from different nationalities would not
necessarily be proportionate to shareholding, but all participants would be
represented. Moreover, the manning for each shift in the technically sensitive
operational areas would always represent at least three different nationalities,
and when repairs or adjustments had to be made that would reveal commercial or
proliferation secrets, only personnel licensed by the appropriate manufacturers
would be allowed to participate. Without this restriction (which would in any
case be necessary on nonproliferation grounds) there would be no chance that the
MNA could buy or lease the most advanced equipment and techniques. The
nonproliferation advantages of international manning are discussed below.
Sites
for MNA
Safety
must be the prime consideration. In general, earthquake-prone sites are not
desirable, but this need not rule out whole countries. For longterm storage,
geological stability is crucial. Ease of transport is both a safety and a
commercial consideration, but this should not exclude the possibility of
upgrading existing infrastructure or even new building if the site is otherwise
suitable.Regional considerations and especially the geographical relationships
of the countries involved will often point to potentially suitable sites.
Participants are already committed by Article IV, paragraph 2, of the NPT to
favor “the developing areas of the world.” (That paragraph reads in part:
“Parties to the Treaty in a position to do so shall also cooperate in
contributing alone or together with other States or international organizations
to the further development of the application of nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes, especially in the territories of Non-Nuclear Weapon States [NNWSs]
Party to the Treaty, with due consideration for the needs of the developing
areas of the world.”) Subject to safety and some commercial considerations,
sites in developing areas in NNWSs ought normally to be picked.
Nonproliferation
Considerations
The NPT
is the basic international agreement assuring its members (the whole world minus
India, Israel, and Pakistan) of equitable access to the peaceful benefits
(mainly in power and medicine) of nuclear technologies. Unfortunately, the
international regime based on the NPT is beginning to unravel for political
reasons. All will suffer if the process continues, but that does not ensure that
the political problems will be overcome. Those who can strengthen the regime
would be irresponsible not to do so, starting with the five NWSs and especially
the United States and Russia. To prepare the ground for a successful outcome at
the 2010 Review Conference of the NPT, they need to take urgent steps toward
fulfilling their obligation to eliminate their nuclear arsenals. There is a
parallel obligation on the NNWSs to avoid any step that could promote
proliferation; this is important because it is the counterpart to their right to
technology. MNA, as we have stated above, can play a significant role in
preventing proliferation. Multilateral facilities are inherently less open than
national ones to the diversion of materials or to threats to “go nuclear” in
a military sense. In addition, they can provide a safe setting for the
absorption of existing national facilities that may be seen as threatening, for
example, the Iranian enrichment facility at Natanz. So it behooves all members
of the NPT to support the concept of MNA and to make them in practice as
attractive and as effective as possible. One important step to this end is to
enhance the IAEA’s capabilities so that it may play the role outlined above
both in promoting nuclear energy and in safeguarding the process. Another is
that care should be taken with the manning of the management company to make it
as professionally competent as possible and also proliferationresistant. Nothing
works better than having trusted people working in close collaboration so that
any cheating quickly becomes apparent. (For further discussion see the Annex.) A
third important step might be to incorporate technical safeguards into the
machinery to protect it against espionage and to destroy or disable it in the
unlikely event that the host country used force to expropriate the facilities.
(This, too, is discussed in the Annex.) In conclusion, two general points must
be recognized. One is the impossibility of guaranteeing that proliferation can
be prevented under all circumstances. This being so, the second point becomes
crucial: the most effective way of reducing the risks is to make it “unthinkable”
for each government to acquire weapons. This can be achieved by restoring and
bolstering the international nonproliferation regime.
Annex
Organizational
and Technical Safeguards
Technical
safeguards, if appropriate at all, will vary with the type of facility concerned
(e.g., conversion plant, reprocessing, long-term storage, etc.). No doubt the
same will be true to some extent with organizational safeguards. Accordingly, in
a short paper, there is limited usefulness in elaborating on what might be
required. For most readers, the treatment above should suffice. However, there
may be some who want to delve deeper. For those we reproduce below our thoughts
on what might be done in the specific case of a multilateral enrichment facility
in Iran with British, Dutch, French, and German participation (hence the use of
the term Western).
“Technical”
Safeguards
It is
generally accepted that an economically viable enrichment plant should have a
capacity of at least 5 million Separative Work Unit (SWU)-kg/yr. Even if the
most advanced centrifuge design is used, thousands of advanced centrifuges will
be in-country when the plant reaches its final capacity. During installation,
and perhaps at other times, there will be a large number of centrifuges that are
not mounted in their permanent positions, and the host country might divert or
examine them for reverse-engineering purposes. However, it is possible to mount
“so-called” active radio frequency identification (RFID) permanently on the
outer casings of each centrifuge that monitors acceleration and motion, both
while they await installation and after they have been permanently mounted. Once
installed, the rotors would also be protected by the casing’s RFID. Until
then, the rotors would be kept in their shipping boxes that are protected by
seals and their own active RFID.1 A common concern with building a multinational
enrichment facility using advanced centrifuges in a host country that does not
have the same level of technology is the possibility of the facility being “nationalized.”
However, technical measures can be taken to lengthen the time it would take the
host country to get the facility up and running after such nationalization. We
believe that both safe and reliable self-destruct and disabling mechanisms2 can
be built into each and every centrifuge in the joint enrichment facility Both of
these mechanisms can be accomplished without explosive charges or other crude
forms of destruction that would pose a risk to workers in the course of their
normal activities. The destructive power is inherent in a spinning centrifuge
rotor, which has almost the same magnitude of energy per kilogram as a stick of
dynamite. In fact, one of the important design problems that had to be worked
out early in the development of centrifuges was a way of ensuring that shrapnel
from a “crashed” centrifuge did not destroy nearby centrifuges and set off a
domino effect of destruction. The details of both of these mechanisms will
depend on the details of the centrifuge on which they are installed. In general,
however, all centrifuges share a common design feature: the motor that spins the
centrifuge rotor is fastened to the bottom of the stationary outer casing and is
“potted” in place.3 It is just this common design feature that we propose to
make use of in both types of mechanisms by placing an encrypted electronickey
circuit inside the motor (see Figure 1 below). If Iran wanted to remove these
key circuits, it would have to disassemble the centrifuge, dissolve the epoxy
surrounding the motor, remove the key circuit, repot the motor, and reassemble
the centrifuge. While this is theoretically possible, Iran would have to develop
the procedure—having never seen the insides of the centrifuge before— and
then repeat the process thousands of times; once for each centrifuge. This could
take a considerable amount of time, time that could be used for responding to
Iran’s actions. Of course, if a selfdestruct command had been issued to the
key circuit before the centrifuge stopped spinning, the centrifuge would be
completely destroyed. There are several ways of implementing a disabling
mechanism. In one, the encrypted key circuit could require a periodic digital
signal just to keep functioning. Thus, for instance, an employee designated by
the non-Iranian partners in the joint venture might be required to send a code
to each centrifuge once an hour; otherwise, the key circuit would shut down the
power going into each centrifuge. (This is not as tedious as it might appear
since a central computer could relay the different codes required for each
centrifuge.) The enabling code is sent together with a message-authentication
code to assure that a forged signal is not being sent. Encrypting such
authentication codes is now well known from electronic banking applications.
Alternatively, a designated operator could send a disabling code to each and
every centrifuge that would permanently open the power circuit and prevent any
centrifuge from receiving the power needed to keep its motor turning. This later
method, however, has the disadvantage that it could be foiled by preventing a
single command from being sent, perhaps by cutting the signal wires or blocking
the employee from performing his duty. The same electronic-key circuit used to
disable the centrifuges could also be used to destroy them. Instead of merely
interrupting the incoming power, the circuit could reverse the order of
two of the three input power “phases.”4 When that happens, the induction
magnet spinning the centrifuge would lose its ability to systematically turn the
rotor and would cause it either to crash catastrophically against the outer
casing or to destroy the main bearing on which the centrifuge sits. A
catastrophic crash would clearly disable the centrifuge but could represent a
potential safety hazard to workers inside the cascade hall. (Modern centrifuges
are designed to contain any shrapnel or fragments that might be created during a
crash, but it still might be dangerous to have 50,000 of them crash all at once.
More detailed knowledge about the designs of centrifuges than is publicly
available is needed before a definitive answer to the question of worker safety
can be given.) It is also possible that this reversing of phases could be done
in a way as to ensure that only the rotor’s critical bottom bearing is
destroyed. This bearing is so critical to the centrifuge’s operation, and is
so technologically sophisticated, that if destroyed, the centrifuge is rendered
permanently inoperable. No centrifuge manufactured today has had either a
self-destruct or a disabling mechanism built into it, and so no matter
what solution is found, there will have to be a development program. However, we
are confident that both of the mechanisms discussed here can be effectively
adapted for existing centrifuge designs and that they will withstand attempts to
circumvent them. The self-destruct mechanism should be effective enough to keep
the centrifuges from being used again. However, it would, given enough time, be
possible to rehabilitate centrifuges that had been disabled using the mechanism
outlined above. We can estimate how long it would take to restore a single
centrifuge to operation assuming that no time is taken to develop the techniques
necessary to remove the electronic-key circuit—remembering that the host
country has not seen the inside of the centrifuge and is planning simply on the
basis of fundamental design principles—and that no mistakes are made. Of
course, the host country could have a number of teams working in parallel and so
could reconstitute a number of centrifuges at the same time. We arbitrarily
assume 75 such teams. We assume each centrifuge will take a day to disassemble
and that this is labor-intensive, so each team can only disassemble one
centrifuge at a time. The next day is spent dissolving the epoxy in which the
motor is potted. This is not laborintensive, and the team could disassemble
another centrifuge at the same time. At this point, the host country could
choose to simply replace the motor, either with a reverse-engineered duplicate
or an indigenously designed replacement, or it could unwind the motor, remove
the circuit, and then rewind the motor. We believe that the fastest approach
would be for the host country to opt for the wind/rewind approach. We therefore
estimate that each motor would take a week to unwind and another week to rewind.
This is labor-intensive but probably only requires a single team member.
Finally, it would take another day to repot the motor and a final day to
reassemble the centrifuge. Thus, a two-man team could rehabilitate two
centrifuges in 19 days. These time estimates are probably independent of the
centrifuge design. While it is possible to speed the rehabilitation of a single
centrifuge by working multiple teams around the clock, it would not shorten the
time needed to reconstitute a cascade since different teams could be working on
different machines in parallel. If the centrifuges are the new Urenco TC-21
design, which is reported to have approximately 100 SWU-kg/yr enrichment
capacity, then 75 such teams could reconstitute a 150-machine cascade in 38
days. Such a cascade could enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for approximately
two bombs per year. If Russian centrifuges are used— which are much shorter
than Urenco designs—and if they are the same type as sold to China with an
enrichment capability of 2.5 SWU-kg/yr, it would take considerably longer to
reconstitute enough for a cascade capable of a single bomb’s worth of
weapons-grade uranium.
Endnotes
1 It
might be a problem to tag all the centrifuges in a large cascade hall with RFID
because of the difficulties associated with sending signals through the forest
of metal centrifuges. However, there are possible workarounds to this. One
possibility that the US national labs are developing is microwave-based RFID
that are much less sensitive to any shielding effects such a cascade might
represent.
2 We
thank Mr. Julian Whichello for suggesting the disabling mechanism and for very
helpful discussions on implementing both the self-destruct and disabling
mechanisms.
3 “Potting”
involves embedding the motor, in this case, in a thick matrix of epoxy. While
this epoxy can be dissolved, exposing the motor so that it can be modified
or repaired takes a considerable amount of time.
4 In
order to have as uniform a power level as possible, centrifuge motors are run
with three input electronic phases as opposed to the more widely known
singlephase circuits used in most houses. While the singlephase wires in most
American homes have one wire held at ground and the other oscillates between
minus 120 volts and plus 120 volts, a three-phase system delivers power more
equally on three separate wires.
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