|
|
Dr.
KHALIL HAMDANI is the MaximsNews Senior International Editor for
Economic Development and is currently based in Geneva. He is the former Director
of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development's (UNCTAD)
Division on Investment, Technology and Enterprise Development.
Contact:
KhalilHamdani@MaximsNews.com
|
UN:
GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ONLY PLUS IN IMF
OUTLOOK
by
KHALIL HAMDANI: 10/02/08 (MaximsNews Network)
UNITED
NATIONS - / MaximsNews Network / - 10
February 2008 -
Developing
countries will continue to grow, moderately, even as growth in the developed
countries is dragged down by the current U.S. downturn, says the IMF as it
revised downward its World Economic Outlook projections for 2008.
The
IMF now projects world economic growth to slow from 4.9 percent in 2007 to 4.1 percent
in 2008.
“The
revision is mostly accounted for by a weaker outlook for advanced economies,”
said Jaime Caruana, Director at the IMF. “Growth in emerging markets -- the
engine of global growth -- is expected to hold up generally quite well. But
here, too, we expect growth will slow to some extent.”
The
economic slowdown, triggered by the subprime crisis, surfaced in the US in the
final quarter of 2007 and spread through financial linkages to Western Europe;
it is also expected to pull in Japan, where business confidence has already
weakened.
Developing
countries will not be able to “delink” completely from the economic slowdown
in developed countries. The good news is that they have escaped the direct
impact of the financial market turbulence. The bad news is that they will feel
the indirect impact through weakening markets for their exports. The slowdown
will spread through trade linkages, into Asia, Latin America and also spillover
to Africa.
Nevertheless,
developing countries will maintain growth even as the developed economies slow
to a near halt. China and India are expected to do well, having the benefit of
strong domestic demand. India also has limited trade exposure, relative to other
Asian countries. Commodity exporters will also continue to grow, benefiting from
strong world demand. If anything, the concern in the developing regions is to
avoid economies from overheating.
The
IMF projects economic growth in developing countries economies to moderate from
7.8 percent in 2007 to 6.9 percent in 2008. In China, growth is
expected to ease from 11.4 percent to 10 percent. That is still
impressive, and China’s stimulus to South-South trade provides upside
potential to the scenario.
Africa
is growing well in recent years, and may achieve 7 percent growth in 2008,
thanks to the commodity boom and to improved policies throughout the continent.
The
immediate global policy priority is to avoid a sharp downturn, says the IMF. The
interest rate cut and fiscal stimulus package will hopefully keep the US economy
out of recession. Fiscal policy in Europe could also be supportive.
Developing
countries also need to stand ready to judiciously apply counter-cyclical
policies, using the policy space that many have earned in recent years through
sound economic performance and a strong fiscal position.
Labels:
United
Nations, U.N., Khalil
Hamdani, Economic
Development, Developing Countries,
World Economy, International Monetary Fund, IMF
~~~~~
MaximsNews.com, An Independent Voice from the
U.N., provides commentary and analysis from
leading world figures: King Abdullah II
(Jordan), HRH Prince Zeid Ra'ad Zeid Al-Hussein
(Jordan), Sir Brian Urquhart, Hans Blix, Amb.
Richard Holbrooke, Anwar Ibrahim, Bianca Jagger,
Dr. Nafis Sadik, Shashi Tharoor, Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, Noeleen Heyzer,
Masood Haider, Kerry
Kennedy, Ian Williams, Stephen Schlesinger, Sen.
Timothy E. Wirth, Marc Morial, Amb. Jayantha
Dhanapala (Sri Lanka), Amb. Pierre Schori
(Sweden), Amb. William H. Luers, Susan Roosevelt
Weld, Rory Kennedy, Mehri
Madarshahi, Hazel Henderson, Donald Wheeler, J. Michael Adams, Gloria Feldt,
Jeffrey Laurenti, Ashley
Bommer, Rory
O'Connor, Genevieve Stamper, Max Stamper and
others.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MaximsNews®
LLC
NEWS NETWORK FOR THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
MaximsNews Network® LLC is a Global News Network reaching over 30,000 in the International Community. It is associated with MediaChannel.org and Globalvision News Network, global news and media information services with more than 350 news affiliates in 135 countries.
Established in 1999.
The views expressed are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of MaximsNews®
LLC.
MaximsNews.com
U.N. ® LLC www.MaximsNews.com
| MaximsNews@MaximsNews.com |
Please
contact us about Republishing:
Syndication@MaximsNews.com ©Copyrights 1999 -
2008, MaximsNews® LLC. All rights
reserved.
|
