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INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP: AFTER BHUTTO'S
MURDER - A WAY FORWARD FOR PAKISTAN: 06/01/08
(MaximsNews Network)
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UNITED
NATIONS - / MaximsNews Network / - 06
January 2007 -- Gravely
damaged by eight years of military rule, Pakistan’s fragile political system
received a major blow on 27 December 2007, when former Prime Minister Benazir
Bhutto was assassinated.
Her
murder, days before the parliamentary elections scheduled for 8 January 2008 and
now postponed to 18 February, put an end to a U.S. effort to broker a
power-sharing deal with President Pervez Musharraf which the centre-left
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader had already recognised was
unrealistic.
Her
popularity and the belief Musharraf and his allies were responsible, directly or
indirectly, have led to violent countrywide protests.
Stability
in Pakistan and its contribution to wider anti-terror efforts now require rapid
transition to legitimate civilian government.
This
must involve the departure of Musharraf, whose continued efforts to retain power
at all costs are incompatible with national reconciliation; an interim consensus
caretaker government and a neutral Election Commission; and brief postponement
of the elections to allow conditions to be created – including the restoration
of judicial independence – in which they can be conducted freely and fairly.
Bhutto’s
death has drawn the battle lines even more clearly between Musharraf’s
military-backed regime and Pakistan’s moderate majority, which is now unlikely
to settle for anything less than genuine parliamentary democracy.
Many in
Pakistan fear that the federation’s very survival could depend on the outcome
of this struggle.
Belying
his reiterated slogan of “Pakistan first”, Musharraf is placing regime
survival and his personal political fortune first, just as he did in
November.
That
month he imposed martial law, suspended the constitution, imprisoned thousands
of lawyers and politicians and sacked the judiciary with the sole objective of
preventing the Supreme Court from challenging the legitimacy of his re-election
as president by a lame-duck and stacked Electoral College.
Musharraf
gave up his position of Army Chief on 28 November under U.S. pressure, but the
legitimacy of his presidential election remains contested. He withdrew martial
law formally on 15 December, ending the emergency and reviving the
constitution.
At the
same time, however, he not only did not restore the dismissed judges or void the
repressive decrees he had issued but also unilaterally and without any legal
basis proclaimed amendments to the constitution purporting to deny the courts
and the parliament their constitutional prerogatives to challenge his changes.
Bhutto’s
PPP and the centre-right Muslim League (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, PML-N) of
former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had reluctantly agreed to participate in the
8 January elections, motivated primarily by the desire to expose Musharraf’s
intention to rig the vote.
Stacked
courts, partial caretaker governments, a subservient Election Commission, the
gagging of the media, curbs on political party mobilisation and association and
the actions of the security agencies all undermined the essential conditions for
free and fair elections.
The
regime’s international backers, particularly the U.S., continue to give signs
of wanting to retain Musharraf in the presidency in the belief that he and the
military (his sole support base) are the only guarantors of stability in a
crucial country.
But
after Bhutto’s murder, and with the extent of popular anger now evident,
elections that are not seen as free and fair would have disastrous
consequences.
The
person of Musharraf has become so unpopular that his continuation in a position
of power guarantees increasing domestic turmoil.
By
continuing to back him, Western governments might not just lose the battle for
Pakistani hearts and minds, but could also be faced with the nightmare prospect
of a nuclear-armed, Muslim-majority country of 165 million descending into
violent internal conflict from which only extremist forces would stand to gain.
Bhutto’s
party will survive her demise, and will, should her successors act wisely,
remain a force for moderation and stability in Pakistan.
Sharif’s
party has vowed to work with the PPP to restore democracy, peace and stability
in the country.
The U.S.
and its Western allies must recognise that Musharraf is not only not
indispensable, but he is now a serious liability.
Instead
of backing a deeply unpopular authoritarian ruler who is seen as complicit in
the death of Pakistan’s most popular politician, they must instead support
democratic institutions and the people of Pakistan.
It is
time that the West acknowledges that only a legitimate elected government, led
by one of the moderate parties, would have the authority and the popular backing
to return Pakistan to its moderate democratic moorings.
In
summary, the policy outcomes that need to happen over the next two months, and
which should be strongly and consistently supported by the international
community, and particularly those like the U.S. most capable of influencing
them, are:
-
Musharraf’s
resignation, with Senate Chairman Mohammadmian Soomro taking over under
the constitution as acting president and appointing neutral caretaker
governments at the national and provincial levels with the consensus of
the major political parties in all four federal units;
-
postponement
of the polls, accompanied with the announcement of an early new election
date. The Election Commission announced on 2 January a postponement until
18 February. This is reasonable in and of itself but it said nothing about
the other crucial changes discussed in this Briefing and which are needed
if this step is to contribute to restoration of democracy in Pakistan;
-
full
restoration of the constitution, including an independent judiciary and
constitutionally guaranteed fundamental freedoms of speech, assembly and
association and safeguards against illegal arrest and detention;
-
reconstitution
of the Election Commission of Pakistan, with the consensus of all major
political parties; and
-
the
transfer of power and legitimate authority to elected civilian hands.
Labels: United
Nations, U.N.,
~~~~~
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