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MaximsNews
Contributor Ambassador Richard Holbrooke
Richard Holbrooke is the former U.S. Ambassador
to the United Nations. He is
a Contributor to MaximsNews
Network. For
Media Interviews: Amb.Holbrooke@MaximsNews.com
TURKS
AND KURDS: Amb. RICHARD HOLBROOKE (MaximsNews.com,
U.N.)
UNITED NATIONS - /
www.MaximsNews.com,
UN/ - 12 February 2007 -- IRBIL,
Iraqi Kurdistan -- Whatever happens in Iraq, we
must try to limit the terrible fallout from the
war.
The
place to start should be with our indispensable
NATO ally Turkey, the front-line state of the
post-Cold War era, whose relations with the
United States have deteriorated dramatically in
the past six years.
The
immediate issue is raids by Kurdish terrorists
across Turkey's border with Iraq, which divides
an area inhabited on both sides by Kurds who
have long felt that they deserve their own
country.
Despite
centuries of enmity, rapprochement is in the
long-term interests of both Turkey and the Kurds
of northern Iraq. But such an effort would be
controversial and could be undertaken only with
strong American encouragement.
First,
some essential background from Irbil, the
capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, which I am visiting
after talks with Turkish leaders in
Ankara.
This
peaceful city is disorienting: Am I in war-torn
Iraq or booming Kurdistan?
Will
Irbil eventually become the capital (or part) of
an independent Kurdistan?
Or
will this region become a battleground for
another war, this one between Kurds and Turks?
You
can call this place Kurdistan, as its citizens
do, or northern Iraq, as the Turks do. But
either way, the overwhelming majority (98
percent in a 2005 referendum) of its 4 million
people do not want to remain part of Iraq.
Who
can blame them? Nothing here feels like the
Middle East. The Iraqi national flag is banned;
only the Kurdistan flag flies.
And
although the Kurds are sending some of their
famously fierce warriors to Baghdad to support
the Americans, they fear that Gen. David
Petraeus's plan to turn the tide in Baghdad will
not succeed.
Ever
since a nation called Iraq was carved out of the
debris of the Ottoman Empire by Winston
Churchill and Gertrude Bell at the Cairo
Conference of 1921, Turkey and Iran have opposed
independence for the Kurds of northern Iraq
because both fear that an independent Kurdistan
on their borders would encourage existing
separatist movements among their large Kurdish
populations.
This
symmetry of fears has led to semi-secret
discussions and even some cooperation between
our NATO ally and that charter member of the
"axis of evil" on dealing with the PKK,
a terrorist group that has conducted raids
against both Turkey and Iran from bases just
inside northern Iraq for many years.
I
would not rule out limited Turkish military
action against some of those bases -- especially
since Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is
under enormous political pressure to show strong
nationalist credentials against hawkish rivals
in an election year.
After
years of mishandling relations with Turkey, last
year the administration appointed retired Gen.
Joe Ralston, the universally respected former
NATO commander, as special envoy for the PKK
problem.
Ralston's
intervention helped avoid a Turkish attack in
Iraq last summer, and he is accelerating his
efforts to get Irbil to rein in the PKK.
But
there is a larger issue: the final status of
Kirkuk, the multiethnic city that sits in the
middle of a huge oil field and lies just outside
the official boundaries of Iraqi
Kurdistan.
The
new Iraqi constitution calls for a referendum
this year on whether Kirkuk is to be
incorporated into the Kurdistan region. The
Turks -- who refer repeatedly to the dangers to
the Turkmen, their ethnic cousins who live in
Kirkuk -- have said that they will not accept
such an event.
Avoiding
a full-blown crisis will require intense
mediation by the United States; unfortunately,
Ralston's current mandate does not include
Kirkuk.
Despite
their history, Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan need
each other.
Kurdistan
could become a buffer between Turkey and the
chaos to the south, while Turkey could become
the protector of a Kurdistan that, though still
technically part of Iraq, is effectively cut
loose from a Baghdad government that may no
longer function.
In
addition, Turkey has a major economic
opportunity in northern Iraq; already, more than
300 Turkish companies and substantial investment
are a primary engine of Kurdish growth.
Rapprochement
would require major undertakings by both sides.
The legendary Kurdish leader who is now
president of the Kurdish regional government,
Massoud Barzani, needs to rein in the PKK and
pledge not to interfere in Turkey's internal
affairs.
A
compromise that took into account legitimate
Turkish concerns would be necessary on Kirkuk;
while this would be difficult, especially for
the Turkish military, I believe it needs to be
attempted, with strong American encouragement.
History
and myth make a Turkish-Kurdish deal extremely
difficult.
It
takes visionary leaders to alter the stream of
history. Charles de Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer
did it for France and Germany. Nelson Mandela
did it in South Africa. But such people are
very, very rare.
Still,
the crisis in Iraq requires Turks and Kurds to
think of their common interest. Having just
talked to the impressive leaders of both sides,
I believe they understand that they face not
just a crisis but an opportunity.
Amb.Holbrooke@MaximsNews.com
~~~~~
MaximsNews.com, An Independent Voice from the
U.N., provides commentary and analysis from
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Kennedy, Ian Williams, Stephen Schlesinger, Sen.
Timothy E. Wirth, Marc Morial, Amb. Jayantha
Dhanapala (Sri Lanka), Amb. Pierre Schori
(Sweden), Amb. William H. Luers, Susan Roosevelt
Weld, Mehri
Madarshahi, J. Michael Adams, Gloria Feldt,
Jeffrey Laurenti, Rodney D. Smith, Rory
O'Connor, Genevieve Stamper, Max Stamper and
others.
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