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CARNEGIE
ENDOWMENT: RUSSIA-LOST IN TRANSITION: A NEW BOOK BY LILIA SHEVTSOVA:
13/10/2007 (MaximsNews Network)
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UNITED NATIONS - / MaximsNews Network /
- 11 October 2007 -- Russian
President Vladimir Putin, who is constitutionally barred from running for
a third presidential term, now says that he has not ruled out running for prime
minister; this has triggered widespread speculation about his intentions.
In the run up to
Russia’s presidential and parliamentary elections, a new book from the
Carnegie Moscow Center’s Lilia Shevtsova examines the legacies of Presidents
Putin and Boris Yeltsin and how they will shape the upcoming electoral cycle and
Russia’s immediate political future.
Sixteen years after
the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has startled the international
community with its assertive rhetoric and economic might.
In
Russia—Lost In Transition: The Yeltsin and Putin Legacies,
Shevtsova contends that Russia’s resurgence in the global arena disguises
political stagnation and failure to modernize.
She argues that the
political regime and the type of capitalism that have been adopted over the last
fifteen years are not sustainable in the long term and are unlikely to promote
further economic growth and social improvements.
Key Conclusions:
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To avoid becoming a lame duck
president, Putin will seek to perpetuate the uncertainty and suspense around
the election and his own political future. Putin’s recent reshuffling of
his cabinet and the appointment of a relatively unknown prime minister
demonstrated his need to prove he is still in charge. A new struggle for
control and influence over the incoming political regime is likely to
emerge.
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Russia’s next leader must
address the pressing social problems plaguing the nation, notably population
decline and economic disparity. While anti-Western rhetoric has distracted
the public, Russia’s shattered social infrastructure threatens economic
and social stability.
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Russia’s recent
assertiveness in foreign policy has greatly mobilized the public, and the
ruling elite would like Russia to simultaneously be both friend and foe to
the West. Potential domestic crises in Russia could result in a more
nationalist and authoritarian regime that eschews cooperation with the West
and purges moderates from the Kremlin.
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To create a fertile
environment for Russia’s further economic and political transformation,
Russia and the West must recognize that they have common interests rooted in
shared values. Western policy towards Russia should avoid isolation at all
costs and should be based on understanding, strategy, and
engagement.
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In particular, Western
nations must understand Russia’s unique dilemmas and choices;
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develop a coherent strategy
addressing the Kremlin leadership, the political class, and society;
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and engage with
Russia on areas where their interests overlap—counter-proliferation,
combating international terrorism, energy security, and climate
change—but not at the expense of acquiescing to the crackdown on
democracy.
“Perhaps the greatest challenge
for transforming Russia will be the need for its leadership to start the new
reforms, of which the most radical will be dividing state power among
independent institutions. Will a new leader be prepared to embark on
political self-castration and hand over some of his power to other institutions?
This is Russia’s metaproblem for which no solution was found under Yeltsin and
Putin,” concludes Shevtsova. ~~~~~
Notes:
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The Carnegie
Russia and Eurasia Program has been a leader in its field since
the end of the Cold War. The senior research team comprises an unparalleled
group of experts in the United States and Russia on Eurasian security and
development, economic and social issues, governance and the rule of law, as
well as security issues such as strategic nuclear weapons and nuclear
nonproliferation. The Program has adapted to changing policy priorities
during the region’s dramatic evolution in the past fourteen years—from
the collapse of the Soviet Union, through the early phase of post-Communist
transitions, into the post-9/11 era, and the current period under President
Putin.
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The Carnegie
Moscow Center was established in 1993 and accommodates foreign
and Russian researchers collaborating with Carnegie’s global network of
scholars on a variety of topical areas and policy-relevant projects.
Carnegie Moscow Center Associates work independently on their own research
in areas covering a broad range of contemporary policy issues—military,
political, and economic.
Labels: Vladimir
Putin, Russia, Lilia
Shevtsova, In
Russia—Lost In Transition: The Yeltsin and Putin Legacies, Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace
~~~~~
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