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UNITED NATIONS - / www.MaximsNews.com,
UN/ - 05 February 2007
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The
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) said in report
released in Paris that warming in the atmosphere, the
oceans and glaciers and ice caps are
unequivocally due to human activity.
Welcoming
the findings, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
pointed to the “scientific consensus regarding
the quickening and threatening pace of
human-induced climate change” and called for
the global response “to move much more rapidly
as well, and with more determination.”
In a statement released by his spokesman, the
Secretary-General said the new study and
expected follow-up IPCC reports “will be
critical guides for the UN’s response to
anthropogenic climate change,” and will
support action by those concerned globally,
nationally and locally.
The IPCC,
which brings together the world’s leading
climate scientists and experts, concluded that
major advances in climate modelling and the
collection and analysis of data now give
scientists “very high confidence” – at
least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct –
in their understanding of how human activities
are causing the world to warm.
This level of
confidence is much greater than the IPCC
indicated in their last report in 2001.
The report, the first of four volumes
to be released this year by the IPCC, also
confirms that it is “very likely” that
humanity’s emissions of carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse
gases have caused most of the global temperature
rise observed since the mid-20th century.
The
report says that it is likely that effect of
human activity since 1750 is five times greater
than the effect of fluctuations in the sun’s
output.
Susan Soloman, co-chair of the IPCC working
group that produced the report, said records
from ice cores, going back 10,000 years, show a
dramatic rise in greenhouse gases from the onset
of the industrial era. “There can be no
question that the increase in these greenhouse
gases are dominated by human activity.”
Three years in the making, the report is
based on a thorough review of the
most-up-to-date, peer-reviewed scientific
literature available worldwide. IPCC Chair
Rajendra Pachuari said the science has “moved
on” and the extent of knowledge and the
research carried is now several steps beyond
what was possible for the last report.
The report describes an accelerating
transition to a warmer world – an increase of
3°C is expected this century – marked by more
extreme temperatures including heat waves, new
wind patterns, worsening drought in some
regions, heavier precipitation in others,
melting glaciers and Arctic ice, and rising
global average sea levels.
“This report by the IPCC represents the
most rigorous and comprehensive assessment
possible of the current state of climate science
and has considerably narrowed the uncertainties
of the 2001 report,” said Michel Jarraud,
Secretary General of the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO).
“The 2nd of February, 2007 in Paris will
perhaps one day be remembered as the day where
the question mark was removed behind the debate
on whether climate change has anything to do
with human activity on this planet,” said
Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
“Momentum for action is building; this new
report should spur policymakers to get off the
fence and put strong and effective policies in
place to tackle greenhouse gas emissions,” he
said.
The report also concludes that:
-
The world’s average surface temperature
has increased by around 0.74°C over the
past 100 years (1906 - 2005). A warming of
about 0.2°C is projected for each of the
next two decades.
-
The best estimates for sea-level rise due
to ocean expansion and glacier melt by the
end of the century (compared to 1989 –
1999 levels) have narrowed to 28 - 58 cm,
versus 9 - 88 cm in the 2001 report, due to
improved understanding. However, larger
values of up to 1 m by 2100 cannot be ruled
out if ice sheets continue to melt as
temperature rises.
-
Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the
Arctic and Antarctic regions. Large areas of
the Arctic Ocean could lose year-round ice
cover by the end of the 21st century if
human emissions reach the higher end of
current estimates. The extent of Arctic sea
ice has already shrunk by about 2.7 per cent
per decade since 1978, with the summer
minimum declining by about 7.1 per cent per
decade.
-
Snow cover has decreased in most regions,
especially in spring. The maximum extent of
frozen ground in the winter/spring season
decreased by about 7 per cent in the
Northern Hemisphere over the latter half of
the 20th century. The average freezing date
for rivers and lakes in the Northern
Hemisphere over the past 150 years has
arrived later by some 5.8 days per century,
while the average break-up date has arrived
earlier by 6.5 days per century.
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It is “very likely” that precipitation
will increase at high latitudes and
“likely” it will decrease over most
subtropical land regions. The pattern of
these changes is similar to what has been
observed during the 20th century.
-
It is “very likely” that the upward
trend in hot extremes and heat waves will
continue. The duration and intensity of
drought has increased over wider areas since
the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and
subtropics. The Sahel, the Mediterranean,
southern Africa and parts of southern Asia
have already become drier during the 20th
century.
-
The number of tropical cyclones (typhoons
and hurricanes) per year is projected to
decline. However, the intensity of these
storms is expected to increase, with higher
peak wind speeds and more intense
precipitation, due to warmer ocean waters.
The IPCC does not conduct new research. Instead,
its mandate is to make policy-relevant
assessments of the existing worldwide literature
on the scientific, technical and socio-economic
aspects of climate change. Its reports have
played a major role in inspiring governments to
adopt and implement the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
and the Kyoto
Protocol, a binding pact on greenhouse gas
emissions.
~~~~~~
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