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INTERNATIONAL
CRISIS GROUP: CRISIS WATCH 52:
02/12/2007 (MaximsNews Network)
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UNITED NATIONS - / MaximsNews Network /
- 02 December 2007 -- Ten
actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in
November 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch, released
today.
In Pakistan, General Pervez
Musharraf's impositon of martial law came as the Supreme Court was set to
rule on the legitimacy of his 6 October re-election and was followed by a
heavy crackdown on dissent.
Thousands of opposition supporters
were detained and the political crisis continues despite Musharraf’s
resignation as army chief on 28 November. Prospects for negotiation between
LTTE rebels and the Sri Lankan government deteriorated this month when a
government air strike killed the LTTE’s principal interlocutor.
Georgia's President Saakashvili
declared a state of emergency on 7 November in response to major
anti-government protests calling for his resignation and for early elections;
over 500 were injured in a brutal police crackdown that followed. A fresh wave
of violence hit the north Caucasus republics of Dagestan and Ingushetia ahead
of Russia’s December elections.
In Somalia, violence escalated in
Mogadishu with scores killed in clashes after insurgents dragged the bodies of
Ethiopian soldiers through the streets. Heavy fighting erupted in eastern Chad
between two rebel groups and the military, marking the abandonment of the
October peace agreement between the government and four rebel groups.
The situation also deteriorated in
Bolivia, Cameroon, Nigeria and Venezuela.
The situation improved in
Israel/Occupied Territories, Iraq and Sierra Leone in November.
For December 2007, CrisisWatch
identifies DR Congo and Bolivia as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at
particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming
month.
An escalation of violence is feared
in North Kivu between rebels loyal to General Laurent Nkunda and government
troops, while in Bolivia, the deadlock between supporters of President Morales
and the opposition appears likely to harden with the prospect for increased
violence.
NOVEMBER 2007 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Bolivia, Cameroon, Chad, Georgia, Nigeria, North Caucausus (non-Chechnya),
Pakistan, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Venezuela
Improved Situations
Israel/Occupied Territories, Iraq, Sierra Leone
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh,
Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, Central
African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Comoros Islands, Côte
d'Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji,
Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Kashmir,
Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Mali,
Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan),
Nepal, Niger, Northern Ireland (UK), North Korea, Peru, Philippines,
Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia , Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan,
Taiwan Strait, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine,
Uzbekistan, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe
DECEMBER 2007 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alert
DR Congo
*NOTE: CrisisWatch
indicators – up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict
resolution opportunities – are intended to reflect changes within countries
or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For
example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where
violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month:
such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence
is feared.
Search current and all past editions
of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch
database.
To subscribe to CrisisWatch
click here.
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Watch
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O'Connor, Genevieve Stamper, Max Stamper and
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