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INTERNATIONAL
CRISIS GROUP: ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT: ANNAPOLIS AND AFTER:
02/12/2007 (MaximsNews Network)
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UNITED NATIONS - / MaximsNews Network /
- 02 December 2007 -- Jerusalem/Washington/Brussels
- With the Annapolis meeting having turned into a kick-off event, new
approaches will be needed to give the subsequent Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations a chance to succeed and minimise costs of failure.
The
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Annapolis and After,* the latest
International Crisis Group briefing, analyses the difficulties surrounding
Annapolis and the opportunities it presents.
On the
positive side, after years of neglect, the U.S. administration appears
energised, and the Israeli Prime Minister and Palestinian President share a
strong political need for success. But the meeting is occurring in a highly
polarised context.
Palestinian
infighting has dramatically increased, Fatah is deeply divided, and Prime
Minister Olmert has a fragile coalition. These will make it hard to reach
agreement and to sell it to both constituencies and, for the foreseeable
future, virtuallly impossible to implement.
"The
fact that the parties have been unable to settle even on a broad statement of
principles in advance of Annapolis is a good indicator of the political
difficulties they will face", says Robert Blecher, Crisis Group's
Israeli-Palestinian analyst.
The
post-Annapolis challenges are three-fold:
-
bolstering
chances of a deal: for this, the U.S. and others in the international
community should be prepared to support the parties, including through
timely presentation of bridging proposals;
-
changing
the situation on the ground: negotiations must be accompanied by steps
that point toward a two-state settlement, including Palestinian
restoration of law and order, a comprehensive Israeli settlement freeze,
reopening Palestinian institutions in East Jerusalem and regular and
significant prisoner releases; and
-
building
a more inclusive process: reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas and
reunification of Palestinian territory are necessary for peace.
Unfortunately, isolating Hamas appears to be a key motivation behind the
Annapolis process – Israeli-Palestinian peace cannot be built on the
back of intra-Palestinian conflict.
"“The
stakes are extremely high", says Ezzedine Choukri-Fisher, Director of
Crisis Group's Arab-Israeli Project. "Failure of this process could
discredit both the Palestinian and Israeli leaderships while further
undermining faith in negotiations".
"With
weak Israeli and Palestinian leaderships, inhospitable political environments,
intra-Palestinian conflict, a polarised region and a U.S. administration
consumed by Iraq and Iran", notes Robert Malley, Crisis Group Middle East
Program Director, "prospects are uneven at best. But the decision to
jettison the incremental approach and deal with the endgame gives some,
however fragile, reasons for hope".
To
find out more, visit our "Arab-Israeli
Conflict" page, which has links to Crisis Group's
reports and opinion pieces on the conflict, details of our advocacy efforts
to date, links to other resources, and information on what you can do to
support Crisis Group’s efforts.
Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635
Giulia Previti (Washington) +1 202 785 1601
Labels: International
Crisis Group, Middle
East, Israeli-Palestinian
Conflict, Annapolis
~~~~~
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O'Connor, Genevieve Stamper, Max Stamper and
others.
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