But
interest had equally focused on Francois Bayrou, the leader of the centrist,
the
This
time, Le Pen’s fortune didn’t hold as he garnered only some 11 per cent
of the electorate. He admitted soon after the vote that “he had misjudged
the mood of the French electorate”.
Francois
Bayrou fared better with some 18 percent of the votes but still fell well
short of the high dreams of making it into the second round (contrary to
many pollsters predictions).
The
big question now is what Bayrou will do – given his ambition to change the
political landscape of
How
will he barter his followers in the Presidential endgame?
The
two front runners are both short of a clear majority.
Sarkozy
with some 30 percent of the vote is well-positioned to gain himself a new
home in the Elysee Palace, if one were to assume that all Le Pen supporters
would vote in his favor as well as at least half of the Bayrou-ists.
Segolene
Royal with a little over 24 per cent of the votes cast on Sunday will face a
tougher up-hill struggle.
Even
if she will be able to rally half of Bayrou’s voters and all of the
scattered left, she may not exceed on paper more than some 46-48 per cent.
How
will she able to assemble a majority of French voters?
Dominique
Strauss-Kahn, former Socialist Party challenger to Segolene Royal and one of
the “elephants” of the Socialist Party, called on all voters whose
candidate did not win “tonight” to join
Royal in the runoff. "I
feel in this first turn the hope of a revival ... I believe that henceforth
the victory by the revival is possible.” But
will this be enough?
Both
finalists in statements after the vote struck a Presidential tone, calling
for a “
Soon
after the preliminary announcement of the votes, the jockeying for new
constellations began in full view of the national and international
television audience.
No
doubt the two run-off candidates are on different ideological paths – or
“societal projects” in French political lingo - one to the right and the
other to the left of the political spectrum, they both share nevertheless a
similar message to the French voters: “a stronger and more secure
Sarkozy,
the son of a Hungarian immigrant, wants less government and more
privatization; he advocates reduced unemployment benefits by reorienting
work and workers, emphasizes an increase in purchasing power, recognizes the
urgency of environmental protection, wants to facilitate home ownership,
puts emphasis on higher education and research, wants to tackle problems
caused by violence, supports a more systematic policy to manage immigration
laws (including the creation of a ministry of immigration), above all he
wants to protect France and Europe from the fall-out of globalization.
In
his recent book “Ensemble”, published in early April, he explains his
value system – which he considers to be at the root of the Presidential
debate and choice, his concept of politics and his ambition to create as a
President a strong Republic.
Segolene
Royal in her campaign agenda shares with Nicolas Sarkozy a concern for the
importance of sustainable development and the protection of the environment
as well as the need to improve the purchasing power of the French people.
But
her campaign platform departs drastically from that of UMP as she invokes
“unity” among all French regardless of their origin and race.
She
believes in a growing work force and aims at the creation of some 500,000
new and temporary jobs in order to reduce unemployment among youth. One of
her credos is that no young person should stay unemployed for more than 6
months. She opposes all forms of violence, be it domestic or social.
She
advocates for central authority of the Government responsibility for the
provision of social security, education, employment and welfare; she plans
to invest massively into research and innovations (to be increased from 5 to
15 percent of the national budget) and she considers guaranteed family and
social protection as a major element of social justice.
While
many enthusiasts may have peeked in from the outside, the French candidates
didn’t look much beyond their own borders. Given the weight of
Interestingly
enough, neither of the two front-runners has put forward any views on
foreign policy issues - Iraq, Iran, the Middle East, Africa, the Doha round
do not much factor in the campaign rhetoric.
Many
political pundits wonder whether this signals that
While
early in the campaign Mr Sarkozy had visited the White House and commented
positively about the policies of President Bush, Madame Royal was visiting
Senegal, China, Lebanon, Canada/Quebec and Italy – each time caught in
gaffes of her own that could have been a liability of her perceived
competence. As a result, the “world” quickly disappeared from the
campaign.
Ms.
Royal’s foray into Quebec, where she echoed past politics of Gaullists by
calling for a free Quebec, and her slips in a press conference on the
Palestinian-Israel conflict did not help her image at the time.
Surprisingly,
French voters seemed to be quite at ease in not being “bothered” by the
foreign policy complications and agenda. This may now change in the next two
weeks, as there will certainly be a premium for looking “presidential”
and at ease with the leaders of the world.
In
the first round of the Presidential election, the French were voting in
unprecedented numbers, close to 85 percent participation. Yet, it was
claimed that until the last moment some 40 percent of voters were undecided.
It
would be interesting to learn from analysts, what made them ultimately chose
whom?
Looking
at recent trends in
Globalization
brought with it a fear of the “unknown” and “insecurity” which
translated into a high volatility of voter allegiance to political parties.
Despite this pan-European trend,
In
the new dispensation of France, many social issues may be moving to the
front of the coming political debate: the system of taxation, which is based
on the protection of the poor, providing for an equitable distribution of
wealth; the legislated 35-hours work-week and related to it the rigid French
law in support of workers and unions; immigration; measures to stimulate
investments and industrial growth.
Today,
while
Without
reform of the bureaucratic practices and without a big push forward, there
will be a little hope for any President, left or right, to change the course
of a stranded France in a stormy sea of changes to smoother water making
France a more viable player in the European theatre.
Left or Right, the main question still remains: Will the new President and Administration be ready to push for “change”?
