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MaximsNews
Columnist Hans Blix
Available
for Media Interviews: HansBlix@MaximsNews.com
Dr
Blix is the former Foreign Minister of Sweden
and former head of the UNs weapons inspection
team in Iraq.
Hans Blix is a Columnist for MaximsNews
Network.
HANS
BLIX: WILL THE U.S. ATTACK IRAN? (MaximsNews.com,
U.N.)
UNITED NATIONS - /
www.MaximsNews.com,
UN/ - 19 February 2007 --
Will the
U.S.
use armed force against
Iran? Hardly any foreign policy issue is hotter
right now.
American
planes are reported to be patrolling along the
border between
Iraq
and
Iran
and American forces have been authorized to kill
Iranian agents in
Iraq.
In
a show to media in
Iraq
anonymous
US
military experts have demonstrated munitions
that they claimed has been delivered by
Iran.
Two
American air-craft carriers are in the Persian
Gulf and missile defenses have been installed in
Gulf states.
Since
no one imagines that
Iran
might launch an attack the conclusion must be
drawn that the military build-up is either to
scare
Iran
or to prepare for American attacks on
Iran.
Many
remember that there was a
US
military build-up in the Persian Gulf during the
autumn of 2002 and the first months of 2003 and
that the
US
attack on
Iraq
followed in March.
Is
something similar under way now?
Most
commentators note that a large part of the
American people feel their country was tricked
into the war in
Iraq
and would disapprove more military
adventures.
Yet,
many worry that the Bush administration might be
tempted to play up
Iran's activities as an important reason for the
anarchy in
Iraq
and to reduce the attention to the debacle in
Iraq
by opening a new front through bombings in
Iran.
Many
governments in the world share the conviction of
the Bush administration that the aim of
Iran's program for the enrichment of uranium is
to give the government at least the ability to
make a nuclear weapon in a few years time.
They
support the demand of the UN Security Council
that
Iran
stop the program and believe that economic
sanctions that prohibit the delivery of material
and equipment for the program may influence
Iran.
However,
practically all are of the view that a military
attack would be disastrous.
Although
it might delay the program of enrichment a few
years it
would, at the same time, probably lead to full
national acceptance of the program, to increased
Iranian support for terrorism and perhaps a
crisis in the supply and delivery of
oil.
Iran's response to the action of the Security
Council has so far been to reduce IAEA
inspectors access to Iranian nuclear
installations and at the same time declaring a
readiness for talks provided that the
Council drop the
demand that the program for enrichment must be
suspended before
talks are opened.
Iran
is thus on collision course with the resolution
adopted by the Council.
While
Washington
declares that diplomacy rather than military
action is on the agenda the administration
evidently believes that naval demonstrations may
have an impact.
A
recent op-ed in Washington Times suggested an
even more explicit demonstration: the launching
of a missile on the former
US
embassy in Teheran now used by the Iranian
revolutionary guards.
In
Europe
and elsewhere in the world people are worried
that mistakes or miscalculations might lead to
an armed conflict or to an Iranian withdrawal
from the Non Proliferation Treaty or refusal of
inspection by the IAEA.
So,
what can be done?
In
the case of
North Korea
the
US
seems able to sit down for talks without
demanding that the production of plutonium be
stopped prior to the talks and even to indicate
that an agreement could comprise the opening of
diplomatic relations and guarantees against
attacks in return for denuclearization.
It
is difficult to understand why in the case of
Iran
the suspension of the program for enrichment of
uranium has been made a precondition for any
talks in which such suspension is the main
subject.
It
is not long ago that an American commission led
by former Secretary of State Baker and former
Congressman Hamilton declared that the
United States
ought to engage in talks with
Iraq's neighbours
Iran
and
Syria.
Yet,
despite the dire situation in
Iraq
the Bush administration prefers to talk to
Iran
and
Syria
through public statements and military
threats.
It
is a little like the boss who said that he liked
to have exchanges of views with his
subordinates: they should come in to present
their views and walk out with his views. A
somewhat less humiliating approach might give
better results.
Such
approach is now being tested
in the case of
North Korea
. Why not in
Iran, too?
HansBlix@MaximsNews.com
~~~~~
MaximsNews.com, An Independent Voice from the
U.N., provides commentary and analysis from
leading world figures: King Abdullah II
(Jordan), HRH Prince Zeid Ra'ad Zeid Al-Hussein
(Jordan), Sir Brian Urquhart, Hans Blix, Amb.
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Dr. Nafis Sadik, Shashi Tharoor, Thoraya Ahmed Obaid, Noeleen Heyzer, Kerry
Kennedy, Ian Williams, Stephen Schlesinger, Sen.
Timothy E. Wirth, Marc Morial, Amb. Jayantha
Dhanapala (Sri Lanka), Amb. Pierre Schori
(Sweden), Amb. William H. Luers, Susan Roosevelt
Weld, Mehri
Madarshahi, J. Michael Adams, Gloria Feldt,
Jeffrey Laurenti, Rodney D. Smith, Rory
O'Connor, Genevieve Stamper, Max Stamper and
others.
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